Hey there, bargain hunter.
Eli Lilly stock hit an all-time closing high of $1,229.93 on June 29, 2026. It is currently trading around $1,212. If you look at where it was a year ago, the 52-week low was $623.78. So yes, this stock has roughly doubled in a year. And no, the story is not over.
What is happening right now in the GLP-1 market is worth paying close attention to, because three things converged in the same two-month window that could reshape Lilly’s revenue trajectory for years.
The Three Things
First, the numbers. In Q1 2026, Lilly posted revenue of $19.8 billion, up 56% year-over-year. Volume climbed 65% year-over-year. The company raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance from $80 to $83 billion all the way up to $82 to $85 billion. Mounjaro generated $8.7 billion in Q1 alone. Zepbound generated about $4.2 billion. Together, the two drugs brought in roughly $12.9 billion in a single quarter.
Second, and this just went live as of July 1: Medicare started covering select GLP-1 drugs for weight loss for the first time for most beneficiaries. The Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program covers Foundayo and the KwikPen formulation of Zepbound at a $50 monthly copay for eligible Part D beneficiaries through December 31, 2027. This is a demand unlock that has not yet appeared in any prescription data.
Third, and this is the part the market is not fully pricing yet: retatrutide.
The Drug the Market Is Not Talking About Enough
On May 21, 2026, Lilly announced Phase 3 TRIUMPH-1 results for retatrutide, its next-generation triple agonist. The headline number was 28.3% average body weight loss over 80 weeks at the highest dose. That is roughly 70 pounds. At 104 weeks, participants achieved up to 30.3% average weight loss.
For context: bariatric surgery typically produces 25 to 35% weight loss. A pill that gets you to the same place without surgery is a different category of product entirely. Lilly has said additional Phase 3 readouts from its retatrutide program are expected across 2026.
Retatrutide is not approved. It is not generating revenue. But it is signaling that Lilly’s GLP-1 franchise may have a second act that is even larger than the first.
The Tension
Pricing pressure is real. Lilly has struck agreements with the Trump administration related to lowering drug prices, though the public details and the ultimate impact on net pricing are still unclear. Realized pricing fell roughly 13% overall and 25% outside the U.S. in Q1. That is not a minor headwind.
Foundayo, Lilly’s oral GLP-1 pill launched earlier this year, started slowly. In its second week on pharmacy shelves, it generated about 3,700 prescriptions compared to Novo Nordisk’s oral Wegovy, which reportedly hit 18,410 in a comparable launch week. That gap knocked the stock in a single session before Q1 earnings reversed it.
What’s interesting here is that Foundayo’s weak early scripts may not tell the full story. Medicare Bridge access for Foundayo begins July 1. The real demand test for that pill starts now, not four months ago.
Valuation
At $1,212 per share, Lilly trades at roughly 30x forward 2026 earnings. Its five-year mean P/E is around 34x. The stock is actually trading below its own historical average. For a company expected to grow EPS from around $35 in 2026 to $44 in 2027, that is a reasonably interesting entry relative to history.
Market cap sits at approximately $1.14 trillion, making Lilly the first pharmaceutical company to cross the $1 trillion threshold. That is not a small number to grow into. But Lilly’s pipeline is deep, and retatrutide is not even close to being the only one worth watching.
What I Am Watching
The next 60 days are the real data window. Foundayo’s weekly prescription data will either confirm that oral GLP-1s have a market at scale under Medicare coverage, or they will confirm that Wegovy got there first and built a habit. Watch for Q2 earnings in early August, where Foundayo script trends will be front and center.
Separately, any additional TRIUMPH readouts on retatrutide land as free options on top of an already-compounding business. If even half of that pipeline delivers, the bull case does not require multiple expansion. It just requires the math to keep working.
Pricing pressure is the bear case. It is not a minor one. If retatrutide is approved at lower government-influenced prices, and if Foundayo loses oral market share to Wegovy, the growth trajectory gets complicated fast. Lilly is not cheap on an absolute basis. It just may be cheap relative to what it is becoming.
