Dear Investor,
Here’s a list worth reading slowly.
a16z crypto. The London Stock Exchange Group. Paxos. Marex. Shinhan Asset Management. TreasurySpring.
In a single quarter, all six signed on to help run one crypto network.
Not to invest in it. Not to “explore” it. To operate it, as validators securing the network.
And they’re not alone. The DTCC, the institution that settles the U.S. securities market, is running a pilot on this same network with more than 30 firms. Treasury repo. Securities lending. Collateral. Tokenized stock transfers.
Most crypto projects spend years trying to get one bank to return a phone call.
This one has Wall Street’s plumbing moving onto it.
That’s why it’s my #1 coin right now.
And here’s the part that matters for your timing: while all of this was happening, the token itself dropped about 14% in a single day this week, with no bad news behind it. It’s still roughly 30% below its all-time high.
The institutions are building. The price is wobbling. I know which one I’m paying attention to.
My full report is normally $97. Today, $3.
Discover my #1 coin for the market right now (before it surges again).
To your massive success,
Bryce Paul
Crypto 101
Flutter Had Its Worst Year. The Election Just Changed the Argument.
Flutter Entertainment dropped its Q3 results at 7:00 a.m. ET today, Election Day morning, into a market that had already marked the stock down hard. FLUT closed Monday at $87.66, more than 60% below its 52-week high of $235.77. The setup for this report was not kind before a single number arrived.
Oppenheimer, in a note issued just before the report, said investors have been warming more to DraftKings because Flutter’s US strategy looks tougher to model. The bank trimmed its full-year US revenue estimate by 2% and cut its Flutter price target to $110 from $120, lowering its 2026 to 2027 EBITDA forecasts to $2.4 billion and $2.97 billion respectively. That was the consensus mood walking into this morning.
The fundamental backdrop behind those cuts is real. Flutter cut full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance by $210 million to $2.655 billion in August, driven by US sportsbook weakness and deliberate reinvestment. US sportsbook revenue fell 15% year-over-year in Q2, with US adjusted EBITDA collapsing 70% to $119 million from $400 million. At the same time, Flutter confirmed that long-serving CEO Peter Jackson would hand over to Dan Taylor effective October 1. Two CEO changes in one year at a company this size is not a footnote.
The pattern of a stock punished for deliberate reinvestment while a core business accelerates is not unique to Flutter. AWS shows how a platform absorbing near-term margin pressure can still command a premium once the revenue line becomes undeniable.
What the sell-side models do not cleanly price is what happened overnight. US prediction market betting exceeded $1.48 billion during the 2026 midterm elections, with Kalshi reporting $1.33 billion in trading volume across its midterm markets on Monday while approximately $145 million traded on Polymarket’s congressional markets. That is a market proving itself at scale on the biggest political event of the cycle. And FanDuel owns the prediction exchange product sitting directly in the path of that demand.
FanDuel Predicts launched in December 2025 as a prediction platform where users trade contracts on real-world events, developed in partnership with CME Group. Customers can now access financial contracts markets nationwide, while sports event contracts are available in 18 states. The midterm volume surge at Kalshi and Polymarket is essentially a live advertisement for exactly what FanDuel Predicts is selling, reaching tens of millions of users who already have the FanDuel app installed.
Reuters reported that Flutter expects FanDuel Predicts investment to reduce 2026 profit by $200 million to $300 million, which sounds expensive until you consider what a customer list in new states can be worth later. That tension, paying now for a revenue line Wall Street cannot yet measure, is precisely why FLUT options are mispriced relative to the actual range of outcomes today.
The Options Perspective
At-the-money implied volatility on FLUT sits at 58.8%, with 20-day realized volatility running at 56.6%. IV is not elevated by historical standards, which means buying premium into this report does not require paying a punishing spread over realized moves. For a print that lands with an unresolved CEO transition, two guidance cuts in a single fiscal year, and a potentially transformative business line just getting its first real validation from election night, that is a reasonable entry point for a defined-risk long.
The relationship between implied and realized volatility is the same mechanism at work across large-cap earnings setups right now. Meta’s Q2 setup showed how a stock with a history of outrunning implied moves can still punish premium buyers when the wrong number lands.
The trade: a bull call spread targeting a recovery toward the $110 Oppenheimer price target. Buy the November or December $95 call, sell the $110 call. Maximum loss is the premium paid. The risk-to-reward improves if Q3 US engagement numbers show any NFL-season stabilization, or if management references prediction-market traction in today’s 8:30 a.m. conference call.
What Kills the Thesis
Guidance gets cut a third time. US sportsbook EBITDA comes in below the already-lowered $760 million full-year figure. Flutter itself guided for US adjusted EBITDA to be approximately break-even in Q3, so any surprise to the downside on that number, or any sign that FanDuel Predicts engagement is not monetizing, would pressure the stock through the spread and validate the bearish consensus. Position sizing matters here. This is not a high-probability trade. It is a high-asymmetry one.
Beast Verdict
Flutter is reporting a messy quarter at a company in transition, against forecasts that have already been cut by analysts who prefer DraftKings. That is the consensus. What the consensus is not fully pricing is a prediction-exchange product now backed by the most compelling live proof-of-concept the category has ever produced. When $1.48 billion trades overnight on Kalshi and Polymarket for a midterm election, every FanDuel user who opens the app tomorrow is a potential FanDuel Predicts customer. The stock is down more than 60% from its high. The bull call spread defines the risk before the thesis is tested.
