October 2, 2026
Bonus Content: Tesla Is Down About 21% This Year. Two October Catalysts Could Change That.
Editor’s Note: JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon warned this day was coming. Now the investment expert who called Nvidia before it soared 1,000%, says it’s finally here. Full story…
Dear Reader,
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon… the most powerful banker in America… told his peers something shocking not too long ago.
He said, “banks should be scared s**tless.”
Not about a recession or interest rates…
It’s the moment big tech finally comes for Wall Street.
And that moment just arrived.
At the center of everything is Elon Musk.
And Elon just launched the most direct assault on traditional banking America has ever seen.
He’s secured money-transfer licenses in all 50 states. He’s signed a deal with Visa. And he’s already mailing physical banking cards to Americans across the country.
Most surprisingly, he’s offering yields on cash that are 10 times what your bank is paying you right now.
Dimon saw it all coming. As did The Federal Reserve, IMF, Goldman Sachs, and BlackRock.
In fact, they’ve all been warning about this for years.
And while the banks figure out how to respond, there’s a narrow window for regular investors to get in early, before this becomes front page news.
My name is Luke Lango. I was voted America’s #1 stock picker in 2020. My readers have had the chance to see gains as high as AMD +13,500%… Nvidia +5,000%… Palantir +1,200%.
And I’ve put together a full briefing on exactly what to do with your money right now because of this.
You can find everything on this page here.
Best,
Luke Lango
Senior Investment Analyst, InvestorPlace
P.S. Your bank has been skimming off every transaction, every deposit, every paycheck for your entire life. Elon just decided to end that. The investors who move first on this story could make incredible profits. In fact, my readers have had the chance at gains as high as 13,500% or more when I’ve spotted stories like this early. Get the full briefing here.
Tesla Is Down About 21% This Year. Two October Catalysts Could Change That.
Tesla is reporting Q3 2026 production and delivery numbers this morning, October 2, and the number Wall Street is watching is 461,974. Tesla published that figure as its company-compiled sell-side consensus, forecasting 461,974 vehicle deliveries and 15.9 GWh of energy storage deployments for the quarter. That is the bar. But the range around it is what makes today interesting for options traders.
Wall Street cannot agree on how many cars Tesla sold in Q3. Estimates from major banks run from 421,758 to 482,000 deliveries ahead of today’s report. That is a 60,000-unit spread. Goldman Sachs cut its forecast to 435,000 units, JPMorgan reduced its estimate to 482,000, and Barclays sits near 475,000. A spread that wide tells you something: nobody has high conviction on the actual number, and the options market is pricing that uncertainty cheaply.
The Comparison Problem and Why It Matters Less Than It Looks
The drop from last year comes down to a tough comparison, since Tesla delivered a record 497,099 vehicles in Q3 2025 as U.S. buyers rushed to purchase before the $7,500 federal EV tax credit expired on September 30, 2025. That was a one-time demand pull-forward. Measuring Q3 2026 against it is nearly meaningless as a signal of underlying business health.
What matters more is whether Tesla clears 461,974 and what the energy storage number looks like. Analysts see 15.9 GWh of storage deployed, which would be above Tesla’s prior quarterly record of 14.2 GWh in Q4 2025. A beat on storage alongside a delivery number anywhere in the middle of the bank range could flip sentiment quickly on a stock that has been badly oversold heading into today.
TSLA shares fell about 8% over the five sessions to October 1, 2026, leaving the stock down about 21% year to date ahead of the delivery report. The stock is sitting below its 20-day and 200-day simple moving averages, and near the 50-day. Technically, this is not a healthy chart. But that weakness is precisely what creates asymmetric opportunity when implied volatility is subdued.
The Options Market Is Offering Reasonable Entry
TSLA’s implied volatility, IV rank, and IV percentile can swing meaningfully day to day and depend on the data vendor and lookback window. The key point for traders is that options pricing into today’s delivery report, the October 15 Roadster event, and earnings later this month does not appear to reflect a high-volatility regime.
Tesla announced on September 28 that its next-generation Roadster event has been postponed to October 15, originally scheduled for October 1, due to inclement weather conditions near Waco, Texas. The event is expected to take place at SpaceX’s rocket test site in McGregor, Texas, and the plan is to demonstrate the Roadster hovering using a SpaceX-developed cold gas thruster package. That is not a routine product launch. If it lands as advertised, it reframes what Tesla is building.
The Trade
The structure that fits this moment is a bull call spread in the October 24 or November expiration. With implied volatility not elevated versus recent history, buying premium outright is defensible. A spread reduces net debit while keeping the trade defined-risk across both catalysts.
Consider a call debit spread centered around the $375–$400 range, targeting a move back toward the 50-day moving average on a delivery beat and Roadster enthusiasm. Max loss is the premium paid. Max gain is the width of the spread minus that premium. With the stock near $354 and three distinct catalysts between now and late October, the risk-to-reward on a well-sized debit spread is compelling.
What kills the trade: deliveries that land at the Goldman low of 435,000 or below, a Roadster event that disappoints or gets delayed again, or any macro shock that takes risk assets broadly lower. Before Tesla reported second-quarter results, Tesla’s company-compiled sell-side consensus called for 406,024 deliveries, and Tesla ultimately reported 480,126. The model has been wrong before, badly, in both directions. Size accordingly.
The Beast Verdict
TSLA sits at the intersection of a broken technical chart, a catalyst-rich October, and options pricing that does not fully reflect what the next three weeks could deliver. The delivery number out this morning is only the first piece. October 15 is the second. Earnings follows shortly after. Buying a defined-risk call spread today, before the first catalyst resolves, captures all three at current premiums. That is the edge.
