Micron Technology is trading around $725 today. Its 52-week high is $1,255. That gap, roughly 42%, reflects one thing: the market’s fear that an AI memory boom this extreme cannot sustain itself. That fear may be right eventually. It is probably too early right now.
The numbers from fiscal 2026, which ended on September 3, 2026, are not easily dismissed. Revenue reached $133.2 billion, up 256% year over year. Gross margins expanded to 81%, a roughly 41-percentage-point improvement from the prior year. EPS rose 811% to $74.33 on a GAAP basis (and $75.52 on a non-GAAP basis). The fiscal fourth quarter alone produced $54.2 billion in revenue, up 379% from a year earlier, and marked Micron’s sixth consecutive quarterly revenue record. Every one of those quarters beat consensus.
The forward picture is what made investors nervous. For fiscal Q1 2027, management guided revenue of approximately $61.5 billion and adjusted EPS of $38.15. That implied sequential growth. It also implied that the fiscal full-year consensus of roughly $176 in EPS requires averaging about $46 per share in the three quarters that follow, or roughly 21% above that guide. Goldman Sachs, which has a $1,250 price target, noted the stock now trades near 4x forward earnings despite that growth rate.
What keeps the bull case grounded is not momentum. It is committed demand. Management stated on the September call that more than 75% of fiscal 2027 shipments are already committed. Micron has said it has signed 26 Strategic Customer Agreements running through at least 2030. Data center SSD revenue in fiscal Q4 was nearly $10 billion, more than 10x the year-earlier level. High-bandwidth memory revenue grew faster than total company revenue in the quarter, and Micron is working with Nvidia on a major custom HBM product.
The HBM market itself tilts toward Micron structurally. As manufacturers shift wafer capacity to HBM production, conventional DRAM supply tightens. Manufacturing HBM requires considerably more production capacity than standard DRAM, so the shift compounds supply constraints across both product lines.
The risks are real. Memory is cyclical in ways that are hard to fully model, and Micron’s fiscal 2022-to-2023 swing from profit to loss is a recent reminder. Capital expenditures in fiscal 2026 were $27.4 billion. If AI spending slows or new architectures reduce memory per system, the pricing picture can reverse faster than consensus models assume. At a 2.4 beta, MU amplifies market moves in both directions.
The December report, tentatively around December 23, 2026, is the near-term test. If fiscal Q1 results come in at or above the $61.5 billion revenue guide and management’s commentary on HBM pricing for calendar 2027 stays constructive, the disconnect between the earnings trajectory and the stock price becomes increasingly difficult to justify. Forty-nine analysts covering MU carry an average price target near $1,562. That is about 115% above where the stock trades today.
The selloff priced in a cycle turn. The cycle has not turned.
